Global airlines revised the coronvirus recovery forecast saying that the return of passenger traffic to pre-crisis levels would happen until 2024, a year longer than what it had expected before. International Air Transport Association (IATA) provided the update on negative impact of pandemic on air travel pointing a slow control of COVID-19 in US and developing countries, and a fainted outlook for corporate travel.
According to IATA, near-term prospects are still blur as travel barriers yet exist to a signifianct extent and some markets are facing new restrictions, which pushed the organization to cut its forecast on 2020 passenger numbers to the 55% decline, which is 9% points more than the 46% predicted in April. The passenger numbers for June showed 86.5% decline compared to same period of 2019 and slightly better than the 91% decline in May.
IATA Chief Economist Brian Pearce commented, “The second half of this year will see a slower recovery than we’d hoped.” Mr. Brian also shed ligth on the uncertainty created after the surprise move by UK for the arrivals from Spain saying, “That is clearly going to be an issue with the recovery.”
United States and developing countries contribute 40% to global air travel, the countries facing increased number of coronavirus cases which also lowered the recovery prospects. Business travel can show a slump in future as well compared to pre-pandemic levels as coporates are increasing the use of video-conferences that became norm amid lockdowns.